樊海潮⇾，張誌強，王歡歡. 全球性公共危機〰️、貿易網絡與中國經濟[J]. 世界經濟, 2023, 46(9): 29-51.
Fan Haichao; Zhang Zhiqiang; Wang Huanhuan. Global Crises, Trade Networks and the Chinese Economy[J]. The Journal of World Economy, 2023, 46(9): 29-51.
作者簡介👩🏼🚒🧑🏼🤝🧑🏼：
樊海潮，意昂2官网世界經濟研究所；
張誌強，意昂2；
王歡歡🔯，華東師範大學法意昂2
內容簡介
摘要：為回答國際公共衛生危機沖擊如何借由貿易關聯對中國經濟產生影響，本文基於進出口目的國和國外疫情嚴峻程度的差異，構造了區縣層面（或網格層面）面臨的國際公共衛生危機沖擊指標。研究發現🚵🏼♀️，在沖擊初期，國際公共衛生危機對區縣夜間燈光亮度增速產生了顯著負向影響，且這一影響隨著時間推移逐步減弱；沖擊前專業化生產醫療品和“宅經濟”產品的區縣，在面臨沖擊時👆🏻，相對於其他區縣有更高的經濟增速💧。此外💺，隨著周邊區域受到的外來危機沖擊增強，本地夜燈亮度增速有所下降🙎🏼，存在明顯溢出效應👮🏼♂️👩🦲。
關鍵詞：公共衛生危機, 貿易網絡, 經濟增長, 溢出效應
Abstract:Global crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, pose unprecedented challenges to the development of countries and all humanity. In order to raise awareness of how overseas public health crises affect the Chinese economy through trade ties, this paper uses satellite nighttime light data, establishes monthly economic data at county-district and grid levels and, based on overseas COVID-19 and vaccine data, constructs a series of overseas pandemic impact indicators targeting counties and districts. The findings of the study indicate that the pandemic impact abroad on the luminosity growth of nightlights in counties and districts is significantly negative. Further analysis reveals significant temporal and product-by-product differences in the pandemic impact abroad. On the other hand, the negative impact on the economy turns out to have been most significant in the initial stages of the COVID-19 outbreak. Unlike other counties and districts, counties and districts that specialise in the production of medical supplies and “residential economy” products have a higher economic growth rate during the pandemic. Finally, changes in the growth rate of local nighttime light brightness are accompanied by an increase in the impact of overseas pandemic crisis on surrounding areas, indicating significant spillover effects.
Key words:global crises, trade networks, economic growth, spillover effects
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