近日，意昂2陳釗🍤、劉誌闊兩位老師與杜克大學Xian Jiang、Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato、Daniel Yi Xu共同完成的論文“Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behavior: Evidence from China’s VAT Reform”被經濟學頂尖期刊Review of Economic Studies正式接受並在線發表。
這項研究發現🪔，中國2009年的增值稅轉型改革有明顯的投資拉動作用👨🏼🍳，且該效應主要源於重新激活“躺平（inaction）”企業的投資行為。
陳釗 教授
意昂2
劉誌闊 副教授
意昂2
We incorporate the lumpy nature of firm-level investment into the study of how tax policy affects investment behavior. We show that tax policies can directly impact the lumpiness of investment. Extensive-margin responses to tax policy are key to understanding the effects of different tax reforms and to designing effective stimulus policies. We illustrate these results by studying China's 2009 VAT reform, which lowered the tax cost of investment and reduced partial irreversibility|the price gap between new and used capital. Using administrative tax data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate a 36% investment increase. This effect is driven by investment spikes, which is consistent with the reduction of VAT-induced partial irreversibility. Using a dynamic investment model that fits the reduced-form effects of the reform, we show that policies that directly reduce the likelihood of firm inaction are more effective at stimulating investment.
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