我院國際金融系林曙教授的論文The role of financial development in exchange rate regime choices (與Haichun Ye合作）最近被國際SSCI期刊Journal of International Money and Finance正式接受發表。
The role of financial development in exchange rate regime choices
Shu Lin and Haichun Ye
ABSTRACT
We make the first attempt in the literature to empirically investigate the role of financial development in the choice of exchange rate regimes. Using a binary choice model, we first show that financially less developed countries are more likely to adopt a fixed exchange rate. To further examine the impact of financial development on the conditional probability of exiting from an existing pegged system to a flexible one, we then employ hazard-based duration analysis. We find strong evidence that countries with higher levels of financial development are more likely to exit a pegged system, and, interestingly, financial development only matters to orderly exits but not disorderly exits. Our results are robust to controlling for endogeneity and sample selection.
JEL classification: F3, F4
Keywords: exchange rate regimes; financial development; duration analysis; hazard; competing risks
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